USMNT’s Most Likely Nations League Opponent in November

With the USMNT preparing for upcoming friendlies, while most of CONCACAF returns to Nations League play - here’s a brief look at the CNL format, FIFA Rankings, and my projection for the USMNT’s CNL quarterfinal opponent in November.

CNL LEAGUE A FORMAT

What is at stake in November?

On November 16 in Austin and November 20 or 21 away, the USMNT will play a home-away series against an opponent TBD. The winner qualifies for both the CNL semifinals in March 2024 and Copa America in June-June 2024. With Copa America 2024 scheduled to be played in the US, along with an expanded-field Gold Cup 2025 and the FIFA Club World Cup 2025, don’t be surprised if the CNL semifinals/final end up in Mexico or Canada.

Why is the USMNT already in the CNL quarterfinals?

The top four CONCACAF teams in the March 23rd FIFA Rankings were automatically placed in the CNL quarterfinals: Mexico, USA, Canada, and Costa Rica.

Which other nations are vying for a place in the CNL quarterfinals?

The other twelve countries in CNL League A have been drawn into two groups of six teams:

Group A - Panama, Guatemala, El Salvador, Martinique, Curaçao, Trinidad and Tobago

Group B – Haiti, Jamaica, Honduras, Cuba, Suriname, Grenada

How will the other quarterfinalists be determined?

Each team will play four matches against teams in their group during the September and October FIFA international windows. The schedule is being described as a “Swiss-style format.” However, the match schedule appears to violate the Swiss-style format rule of not having teams play each other twice. See if you can reconcile the Swiss-style format definition with CONCACAF's group stage.

The CNL Quarterfinalists

Who is unlikely to compete for the top two places in their group?

Although CONCACAF is always good for an upset and a good underdog story…Grenada, Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad & Tobago all failed to qualify for the Gold Cup just a few months back. Cuba qualified for the Gold Cup but then showed nothing. I don’t see any of these teams finishing above a team that made it to the knockout rounds of the Gold Cup.

Who seems to be a lock to qualify for the CNL quarterfinals?

Panama and Jamaica…rewind the Gold Cup tape for reference. I am projecting Panama and Jamaica to both end with three wins and a tie – 10 points.

How to sort out the best of the rest?

First, consider the schedule. The CNL format allows the teams in the 3rd position to avoid the teams in the 1st position.

In group A, the 3rd position team, El Salvador, avoids Panama but still has potentially difficult matches away to Guatemala and home/away with Martinique. Their easiest match appears to be home against T&T. I’m projecting two wins, a tie, and a loss – 7 points.

In Group B, the 3rd position is very kind to Honduras. They play Cuba home and away, Grenada at home, and travel to Jamaica. Even with Honduras not playing with the quality of recent years, with this favorable schedule, I see them with three wins and a loss – 9 points.

That leaves Martinique, Guatemala, and Haiti. I see each with a record of a win, two ties, and a loss - 5 points.

The USMNT Opponent

What is the format for quarterfinal match-ups?

Using the October FIFA Rankings the November pairings will be:

• First-ranked seeded team vs. Next-ranked group runner-up

• Second-ranked seeded team vs. Best-ranked group runner-up

• Third-ranked seeded team vs. Next-ranked group winner

• Fourth-seeded team vs. Best-ranked group winner

How will the group runner-ups be ranked?

 Currently, Honduras has 1,424 points, while El Salvador has 1,341. With similar qualifying performances projected, this order of rankings is unlikely to change.

How will the top-seeded teams be ranked?

Currently, Mexico is at 1,967, while the United States has 1,904 points.

In September/October friendlies, Mexico and the USMNT both play Uzbekistan, Germany, and Ghana. The only difference in schedules is that the US plays Oman, and Mexico takes on Australia.

Each team’s points for ranking purposes after each match will be: PointsBefore + I * (W – We)

• I (importance) will be the same for all games, the second lowest point category, “friendly matches played during the International Match Calendar window.”

• We (expected result) depends on opponent rankings, so Mexico has an opportunity to gain slightly more points as Australia is ranked #27 and Oman is at #73.

• W (match result) is 1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = defeat.

Given that the USMNT and Mexico will likely earn less than a dozen points per win and it’s unlikely that Mexico will lose all four matches - it is unlikely that the USMNT will make up the current 63 point deficit and surpass Mexico in the October FIFA Rankings.

So, who can we plan to see the USMNT play in November?

Second-ranked seeded team vs. Best-ranked group runner-up…

USA vs. Honduras